The upcoming 2024 U.S. presidential election is poised to significantly impact global bond markets, influencing inflation expectations, interest rates, and geopolitical risks. Historical patterns indicate that political uncertainty can drive demand for safe-haven assets like U.S. Treasuries, while potential shifts in fiscal policy may lead to increased bond yields. Investors must navigate these complexities as the election approaches, considering both domestic and international factors.
US elections significantly impact global bond markets, influencing inflation expectations, monetary policy, and geopolitical risks. Fiscal policies, whether aggressive or conservative, can lead to volatility in bond yields, while trade policies may disrupt international markets. As the 2024 election approaches, heightened uncertainty is expected to drive demand for safe-haven assets like US Treasuries.
Global markets are poised for volatility as major tech companies, including Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, and Microsoft, prepare to announce earnings amid shifting economic data and currency fluctuations. The easing of yields has provided some relief to equities, while concerns over a potential second Trump presidency are strengthening the dollar and Treasury yields. As Europe faces regional challenges and the US navigates political and economic changes, investors are bracing for a turbulent market landscape ahead.
The upcoming 2024 US presidential election is poised to significantly influence global bond markets, affecting interest rates, inflation expectations, and geopolitical dynamics. Political uncertainty may drive demand for safe-haven assets like US Treasuries, while potential aggressive fiscal policies could lead to higher bond yields and increased volatility in international markets. Historical patterns indicate that election years often yield higher stock market returns, but short-term corrections may follow post-election.
EUR/USD and GBP/USD have bounced off multi-month lows, with EUR/USD recovering from $1.0778 and facing resistance at $1.0871 and $1.0900. GBP/USD is attempting to rise from a two-month low of $1.2908 towards $1.3000, while USD/JPY's rally has stalled near a three-month high at ¥153.18, finding short-term support at ¥151.40.
Wall Street is poised for its first loss in seven weeks, influenced by rising US Treasury yields and profit-taking in major tech stocks ahead of earnings reports. Key events this week include the US Q3 GDP estimate, Eurozone's flash GDP, and Australia's CPI, with market expectations leaning towards cautious economic indicators amid upcoming US elections. The Bank of Japan is expected to maintain its interest rates, while the US non-farm payroll report will be closely watched for insights into labor market resilience.
Watami Co. is acquiring the operator of Subway in Japan, aiming to diversify beyond its izakaya-style restaurants and compete with McDonald’s Holdings Co. Japan. The Tokyo-based company, which also franchises TGI Fridays, has signed a 10-year master franchise agreement with Subway International B.V. to facilitate the deal, which will be financed through bank loans.
US equity markets are set for their first losing week in seven, driven by profit-taking ahead of major tech earnings and rising national debt yields. The ASX 200 is also expected to close negatively, influenced by Wall Street losses. Key economic indicators, including the US GDP and job data, are due next week, alongside inflation reports from Australia and Europe.
High net worth individuals (HNWIs) are increasingly active in the art market, with median spending on art and antiques at $25,555 in early 2024. Notably, HNWIs in mainland China reported the highest median expenditure at $97,000, reflecting a strong post-lockdown recovery. The survey indicates a shift towards purchasing from new galleries and emerging artists, with a growing representation of female artists in collections.
US stocks and bonds gained as new home sales exceeded estimates, jobless claims fell, and business activity expanded. Asian markets showed mixed results, with Japanese shares lagging due to a stronger yen, while Australian and South Korean indexes advanced. Treasury yields declined for the second consecutive day, reflecting shifting expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts amid upcoming economic data and a tight presidential race.
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